Is Tinubu another Awolowo?, By Oke Umurhohwo

By Oke Umurhohwo  

For some people, it is a tough question. For others, it is an insult to even think of both men in the same sentence. But given the prevailing circumstances, it will not be too hard to understand why that question is coming at this point. Even though Bola Ahmed Tinubu is nowhere near comparison with late Obafemi Jeremiah Awolowo, however, there is one thing that seems to bring about questions on whether the former Lagos state governor is another Awolowo.

So, it seems like a simple question with an even simpler answer, but taking a closer look, you'll find it more complex. If you're a close observer of the Nigerian political space and power structures, those two names would not be strange to you as they have featured prominently in the history of Nigeria, right from independence.

Chief Awolowo was one of the founding fathers of Nigeria, and as Premier of Western Nigeria, brought about unimaginable developments in the region that earned him cult-like followership to date. As for Tinubu, he was a former governor of Lagos state, who went from surviving a major onslaught that swept his colleagues on the platform of Alliance for Democracy (AD) to building a political empire that has the Southwest region in a firm grip.

This has nothing to do about their politics and governance milestone, but about the quest to rule Nigeria. If you're a good student of history, one thing you'll hardly miss about Chief Awolowo was his strong desire to be president of Nigeria. But he could not achieve that dream, not because he was incapable, but for some high-wire politics that is almost repeating itself.

Awolowo and Tinubu share a race and follows an almost similar political trajectory, which gained them incredible stakes in power configuration. Though many are quick to push back any rhetoric that attempt to mention Tinubu in the same breath as Awolowo, it would be so unfair to ignore his progress over the years.

Tinubu apparently wants to model himself after Awolowo as the rallying point for Yoruba's political interests, and possibly, someone that would dare the odds and take the top seat in the country. This isn't hard to decipher especially if you pay close attention to the politics of Tinubu, who have shown a remarkable understanding of the public's mood, and how to manipulate foes and friends to reach for power.

Like Awolowo, Tinubu will most certainly, come out openly to pursue his longtime dream of getting the presidency. Forget the denial or pretense, Tinubu has his eyes set on the presidency and would make his intention known when he believes the time is right. But as a realist, I'm careful not to let the impression of history be lost on me, but instead, pay more attention to the lessons it taught us. What does that mean? A lot, but only if people can be objective. 

In a recent chat with a friend, the 2023 presidential election came up and in between, he introduced Tinubu into our discussion and tried to debate his likely chance to the coveted presidential seat. For several minutes, I was silent. Surprised at my posture, he tried to know why I've chosen not to make any contribution.

When I broke my silence, I simply asked him if he had ever heard about Awolowo and his quest to rule Nigeria. Probably, finding what to say, I showed him a WhatsApp broadcast that tried to bring back the past and its bearing on the present. In the broadcast, the author adduced that Awolowo was deceived by the former military ruler, Yakubu Gowon when he said: "Immediately after the war is over, you will be the head of Federal Government of Nigeria as elected president."

But Awolowo was not alone with such experience as the author of the broadcast suggested, citing other examples including that of Tinubu. Though, some may try to play down the message but doing that will only show their naivety and poor understanding of historical trajectory. As memory fades, events of the past can easily repeat itself, and by that, we would have the past, right in the present.

The miscalculation, which could prove fatal, that Tinubu can ever make, is to believe anyone owes him a debt that would be repaid. Every man, no matter how strong he is, lies to himself about something. Thinking that 2023 would be about compensation would be a lie that the experience with Awolowo can easily break.

As 2023 draws closer, pundits set their gaze to see where the pendulum will swing. Taking cues from history and maneuvering, nothing is really sure at this moment, but one thing which almost everyone is keen to find out is whether Tinubu will be another Awolowo or if he will be able to pull the biggest surprise of Nigeria's democratic history. Time will tell.

Written by Oke Umurhohwo, a Political Analyst and Strategist. He tweets via @OkeStalyf and can be reached via [email protected]