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Showing posts with label Buhari. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Buhari. Show all posts

Exclusive: How B'Haram Used Chibok Ransom To Buy Powerful Weapons, Resulted In Recent Renewed Sect's Counter-attacks

Exclusive: How B'Haram Used Chibok Ransom To Buy Powerful Weapons, Resulted In Recent Renewed Sect's Counter-attacks

Frontier News - Even as the Nigerian government continued to keep lips sealed over the recent ransom paid to Boko Haram in exchange for the release of some Chibok girls, it has been revealed that the said ransom have contributed to the recent upsurge in the killings and disappearances of soldiers engaged in the fight against the insurgents.

Sources in the military hinted FrontiersNews that despite denials by the Federal Government, money was paid to the sect to secure the release of the abducted girls.


It was learnt that the insurgents demanded for $50m for the release of the girls but about a quarter of the sum was eventually paid.

We learnt that the Federal Government paid the cash in two currencies – the naira and the CFA Francs to the leaders of the sect to facilitate the release of the girls.

But, the highly-ranked military men who are engaged in the war, and who craved anonymity because they were not authorised to speak for the military authorities, attributed the recent upsurge in the activities of the insurgents to the huge ransom paid for the release of the girls.

Prior to the current increase in the attacks by the insurgents, it was learnt that the troops of Operation Lafiya Dole, deployed in the North-East, had effectively cut off food and logistics supply to the insurgents.

Some of the sources, who are also commanders at the war front, said that the troops had effectively defeated the Boko Haram members, who were on the run while a good number of them had surrendered and taken to a rehabilitation camp established by the Defence Headquarters in Yola.

In October, 83 soldiers were reported missing days after they came under a Boko Haram attack. Though there have been increasing reports of soldiers either missing or killed since the Chibok girls were released, the military initially denied the report, it later said that only 39 soldiers were missing.

Also, on November 4, seven military men, including Lt.-Col. Muhammad Abu-Ali, were killed on their way to reinforce troops at Mallam Fatori during  a Boko Haram attack. Two days later, one soldier was also killed while four others were wounded in the line of duty.

In October, 21 of the over 200 girls abducted from their school in Chibok, Borno State, in April 2014 were released by the group.

However, the Federal Government denied exchanging insurgents for the abducted girls and paying a ransom to the sect.

But the military sources insisted that Boko Haram did not release the girls without getting anything in return and that the Federal Government indeed paid a ransom and released some of the group’s strategists that were detainees.

One of the sources said it was sad that the same government that was initially seen as tough enough to end insurgency in the country failed to negotiate with Boko Haram from a position of strength.

“It is unfortunate that in government’s desperation to secure the release of the Chibok girls, it has put our (soldiers’) lives in danger by yielding to the demands of the group to collect a ransom and secure the release of its commanders.

“It is now obvious that the group has reinforced and bought more weapons to fight us.”

According to another source, left to the military, the ransom and the exchange of Boko Haram members for Chibok girls would not have taken place.

 “Funds were given to Boko Haram and now we can all see the result of that action; there have been renewed attacks recently and many of our men have been killed in the process but we will not relent, we will continue to do our best to secure this nation.

“The military had reservations about the arrangement but it was not in our hands; it was a political decision that we had to abide with and it was the DSS that was directly in charge of the operation,” the source added.

Another source, who is also active in the war theatre, said, “They got the Chibok girls and suddenly the Boko Haram that we had beaten and chased out of Sambisa are attacking and killing men of quality.

“It is very obvious that they have used the money they got from the deal to buy equipment and recruit men to carry out their heinous acts.

“The group is still in Mallam Fatori, they have infested the entire area and their strongest point into Chad is Abadam. It is from there that they disperse their men to carry out attacks.

“Another thing you must note is that the towns around the borders are occupied by mercenaries from foreign countries. Where did they get the money to fund that?”

Investigation revealed that Boko Haram members,  who were routed out of their dreaded Sambisa enclave by the military, had regrouped at Abadam, and were still holding onto the fringes of Mallam Fatori in the northern part of Borno State.

It was further gathered that the group was engaging the services of mercenaries with their operational base in Abadam in the far north, close to Chad.

The latest incidents contradict President Muhammadu Buhari’s assertion on December 24, 2015 that Nigeria had “technically” won the war against Boko Haram and that the militant group could no longer mount conventional attacks against security forces or population centres.

Following the President’s assertion, the Minister of Information and Culture, Lai Mohammed, also said on December 27, 2015 that “we have been vindicated because Boko Haram have been decapitated compared to the past records.”

The sect gained international attention when it kidnapped 219 Chibok schoolgirls on April 14, 2014.

Two years later, on April 10, 2016, the group said it wanted a $50m (N15.7bn) ransom to free the Chibok girls, according to a report by The Sunday Telegraph of London.

The publication said it gathered from sources close to the sect that the demand was made “during secret contacts with the government of President Muhammadu Buhari, who has said he is willing to negotiate for the girls’ freedom.”

The sect’s six-year insurgency has led to the deaths of over 17,000 people, destruction of more than 1,000 schools and displacement of about two million people.

Between May 2015 when President Buhari assumed office and October 2016, the insurgents have carried out over 20 attacks, leading to the deaths of over 2,600 Nigerians.

However, we learnt on Friday that combined forces of the ground troops, the fighter pilots of the Nigerian Air Force and local hunters had been deployed to fight the insurgents around some locations in Gwoza.

When one of our correspondents contacted the Acting Director, Defence Information, Brig. Gen. Rabe Abubakar, he said that the minor setback in the operations should not be taken to mean that the Boko Haram was a formidable force.

He told one of our correspondents on the telephone that the military was determined to defend the territorial integrity of the country and was equipped to do so.

He gave the assurance that Boko Haram would not achieve its objective of acquiring any territory in the country.

He said, “The group is not a force to be reckoned with as far as the military is concerned.

“In spite of the minor setback, it does not in any way mean that the Boko Haram is a force to be reckoned with. We will defend the integrity of Nigeria to the letter, and that is what we are committed to do.”

Faulting the payment of cash to the sect as a ransom for the girls, a United Kingdom-trained criminologist and Chairman of Puma Eye Security Services, Mr. Pedro Ayandokun, said it had to be responsible for the renewed terrorist attacks in the country.

He said, “I was never in support of making any exchange with Boko Haram. That is what is creating the problem. What they have got will not be used to buy rice, but to acquire ammunition.”

Also, the Chief Executive Officer of Security Watch Africa, Patrick Agbamu, said giving cash to the insurgents would encourage them to kidnap more girls.

He said, “The government ought not to give money to the terrorists. It will embolden them to kidnap more girls.”

Despite the insurgents’ recent attacks, Agbamu, however, asked for patience, saying, “Up till today, there are still attacks in Afghanistan and Iran. Insurgency is not easily stopped.”

The President of the Association of Industrial Security and Safety Operators of Nigeria, Dr. Ona Ekhomu, also said if the Federal Government gives money to the insurgents, it could empower them to carry out more attacks.

He said at a time when the sect was broke, giving money to them might be all they needed to regain more strength.

He said, “There were insinuations that for the 21 girls released recently by the insurgents, cash was given to the terrorists. Cash is exactly what the terrorists need to be strengthened.”

Likewise, a professor of African History, Peace and Conflict Studies and Director, Institute of Peace and Strategic Studies, University of Ibadan, Isaac Albert, said government had not been negotiating with Boko Haram from a position of strength.

He said, “We have said for some time now that we have defeated the sect but it is obvious that it is not true.”

But the Presidency on Friday insisted that the Federal Government did not pay members of the Boko Haram sect to secure freedom for the 21 Chibok girls.

The Special Adviser to the President on Media and Publicity, Mr. Femi Adesina, said the position of government remains that cash was not involved in the release.

“Information Minister, Alhaji Lai Mohammed, told the country that there was no cash involvement in the release of the 21 Chibok girls. If you have evidence that it was not so, simply produce it,” he said.

 However, one of the  lawmakers involved in the negotiation which led to the release of the 21 girls, confirmed that a ransom was paid to Boko Haram but said the amount was far less than $50m.

The source, who expressed shock when one of our correspondents put the question to him to confirm the payment, agreed to speak on condition of anonymity.

He said, “I don’t think it is up to that amount. Yes, there was a deal. Something like that (payment of a ransom) happened but it was never near the amount you just mentioned; it is even not up to a quarter of that amount. I can tell you that it was done (paid).

“I can also tell you that the second round of the talk was scuttled because of the disagreement on the next tranche of a ransom. The negotiation for another batch of the girls has hit the brick wall as a result of the failure to agree on an amount (to be paid as a ransom). I am speaking to you on this authoritatively.”

Frontier News - Even as the Nigerian government continued to keep lips sealed over the recent ransom paid to Boko Haram in exchange for the release of some Chibok girls, it has been revealed that the said ransom have contributed to the recent upsurge in the killings and disappearances of soldiers engaged in the fight against the insurgents.

Sources in the military hinted FrontiersNews that despite denials by the Federal Government, money was paid to the sect to secure the release of the abducted girls.


It was learnt that the insurgents demanded for $50m for the release of the girls but about a quarter of the sum was eventually paid.

We learnt that the Federal Government paid the cash in two currencies – the naira and the CFA Francs to the leaders of the sect to facilitate the release of the girls.

But, the highly-ranked military men who are engaged in the war, and who craved anonymity because they were not authorised to speak for the military authorities, attributed the recent upsurge in the activities of the insurgents to the huge ransom paid for the release of the girls.

Prior to the current increase in the attacks by the insurgents, it was learnt that the troops of Operation Lafiya Dole, deployed in the North-East, had effectively cut off food and logistics supply to the insurgents.

Some of the sources, who are also commanders at the war front, said that the troops had effectively defeated the Boko Haram members, who were on the run while a good number of them had surrendered and taken to a rehabilitation camp established by the Defence Headquarters in Yola.

In October, 83 soldiers were reported missing days after they came under a Boko Haram attack. Though there have been increasing reports of soldiers either missing or killed since the Chibok girls were released, the military initially denied the report, it later said that only 39 soldiers were missing.

Also, on November 4, seven military men, including Lt.-Col. Muhammad Abu-Ali, were killed on their way to reinforce troops at Mallam Fatori during  a Boko Haram attack. Two days later, one soldier was also killed while four others were wounded in the line of duty.

In October, 21 of the over 200 girls abducted from their school in Chibok, Borno State, in April 2014 were released by the group.

However, the Federal Government denied exchanging insurgents for the abducted girls and paying a ransom to the sect.

But the military sources insisted that Boko Haram did not release the girls without getting anything in return and that the Federal Government indeed paid a ransom and released some of the group’s strategists that were detainees.

One of the sources said it was sad that the same government that was initially seen as tough enough to end insurgency in the country failed to negotiate with Boko Haram from a position of strength.

“It is unfortunate that in government’s desperation to secure the release of the Chibok girls, it has put our (soldiers’) lives in danger by yielding to the demands of the group to collect a ransom and secure the release of its commanders.

“It is now obvious that the group has reinforced and bought more weapons to fight us.”

According to another source, left to the military, the ransom and the exchange of Boko Haram members for Chibok girls would not have taken place.

 “Funds were given to Boko Haram and now we can all see the result of that action; there have been renewed attacks recently and many of our men have been killed in the process but we will not relent, we will continue to do our best to secure this nation.

“The military had reservations about the arrangement but it was not in our hands; it was a political decision that we had to abide with and it was the DSS that was directly in charge of the operation,” the source added.

Another source, who is also active in the war theatre, said, “They got the Chibok girls and suddenly the Boko Haram that we had beaten and chased out of Sambisa are attacking and killing men of quality.

“It is very obvious that they have used the money they got from the deal to buy equipment and recruit men to carry out their heinous acts.

“The group is still in Mallam Fatori, they have infested the entire area and their strongest point into Chad is Abadam. It is from there that they disperse their men to carry out attacks.

“Another thing you must note is that the towns around the borders are occupied by mercenaries from foreign countries. Where did they get the money to fund that?”

Investigation revealed that Boko Haram members,  who were routed out of their dreaded Sambisa enclave by the military, had regrouped at Abadam, and were still holding onto the fringes of Mallam Fatori in the northern part of Borno State.

It was further gathered that the group was engaging the services of mercenaries with their operational base in Abadam in the far north, close to Chad.

The latest incidents contradict President Muhammadu Buhari’s assertion on December 24, 2015 that Nigeria had “technically” won the war against Boko Haram and that the militant group could no longer mount conventional attacks against security forces or population centres.

Following the President’s assertion, the Minister of Information and Culture, Lai Mohammed, also said on December 27, 2015 that “we have been vindicated because Boko Haram have been decapitated compared to the past records.”

The sect gained international attention when it kidnapped 219 Chibok schoolgirls on April 14, 2014.

Two years later, on April 10, 2016, the group said it wanted a $50m (N15.7bn) ransom to free the Chibok girls, according to a report by The Sunday Telegraph of London.

The publication said it gathered from sources close to the sect that the demand was made “during secret contacts with the government of President Muhammadu Buhari, who has said he is willing to negotiate for the girls’ freedom.”

The sect’s six-year insurgency has led to the deaths of over 17,000 people, destruction of more than 1,000 schools and displacement of about two million people.

Between May 2015 when President Buhari assumed office and October 2016, the insurgents have carried out over 20 attacks, leading to the deaths of over 2,600 Nigerians.

However, we learnt on Friday that combined forces of the ground troops, the fighter pilots of the Nigerian Air Force and local hunters had been deployed to fight the insurgents around some locations in Gwoza.

When one of our correspondents contacted the Acting Director, Defence Information, Brig. Gen. Rabe Abubakar, he said that the minor setback in the operations should not be taken to mean that the Boko Haram was a formidable force.

He told one of our correspondents on the telephone that the military was determined to defend the territorial integrity of the country and was equipped to do so.

He gave the assurance that Boko Haram would not achieve its objective of acquiring any territory in the country.

He said, “The group is not a force to be reckoned with as far as the military is concerned.

“In spite of the minor setback, it does not in any way mean that the Boko Haram is a force to be reckoned with. We will defend the integrity of Nigeria to the letter, and that is what we are committed to do.”

Faulting the payment of cash to the sect as a ransom for the girls, a United Kingdom-trained criminologist and Chairman of Puma Eye Security Services, Mr. Pedro Ayandokun, said it had to be responsible for the renewed terrorist attacks in the country.

He said, “I was never in support of making any exchange with Boko Haram. That is what is creating the problem. What they have got will not be used to buy rice, but to acquire ammunition.”

Also, the Chief Executive Officer of Security Watch Africa, Patrick Agbamu, said giving cash to the insurgents would encourage them to kidnap more girls.

He said, “The government ought not to give money to the terrorists. It will embolden them to kidnap more girls.”

Despite the insurgents’ recent attacks, Agbamu, however, asked for patience, saying, “Up till today, there are still attacks in Afghanistan and Iran. Insurgency is not easily stopped.”

The President of the Association of Industrial Security and Safety Operators of Nigeria, Dr. Ona Ekhomu, also said if the Federal Government gives money to the insurgents, it could empower them to carry out more attacks.

He said at a time when the sect was broke, giving money to them might be all they needed to regain more strength.

He said, “There were insinuations that for the 21 girls released recently by the insurgents, cash was given to the terrorists. Cash is exactly what the terrorists need to be strengthened.”

Likewise, a professor of African History, Peace and Conflict Studies and Director, Institute of Peace and Strategic Studies, University of Ibadan, Isaac Albert, said government had not been negotiating with Boko Haram from a position of strength.

He said, “We have said for some time now that we have defeated the sect but it is obvious that it is not true.”

But the Presidency on Friday insisted that the Federal Government did not pay members of the Boko Haram sect to secure freedom for the 21 Chibok girls.

The Special Adviser to the President on Media and Publicity, Mr. Femi Adesina, said the position of government remains that cash was not involved in the release.

“Information Minister, Alhaji Lai Mohammed, told the country that there was no cash involvement in the release of the 21 Chibok girls. If you have evidence that it was not so, simply produce it,” he said.

 However, one of the  lawmakers involved in the negotiation which led to the release of the 21 girls, confirmed that a ransom was paid to Boko Haram but said the amount was far less than $50m.

The source, who expressed shock when one of our correspondents put the question to him to confirm the payment, agreed to speak on condition of anonymity.

He said, “I don’t think it is up to that amount. Yes, there was a deal. Something like that (payment of a ransom) happened but it was never near the amount you just mentioned; it is even not up to a quarter of that amount. I can tell you that it was done (paid).

“I can also tell you that the second round of the talk was scuttled because of the disagreement on the next tranche of a ransom. The negotiation for another batch of the girls has hit the brick wall as a result of the failure to agree on an amount (to be paid as a ransom). I am speaking to you on this authoritatively.”

BREAKING: Buhari Appoints New CJN

BREAKING: Buhari Appoints New CJN

Justice Walter Nkanu Onnoghen
President Muhammadu Buhari has approved the appointment of  Justice Walter Nkanu Onnoghen as the acting CJN 24 hours to the exit of the retiring Chief Justice of Nigeria (CJN), Justice Mahmud Mohammed.

His swearing in, is scheduled for tomorrow (Thursday) at the Aso Rock presidential villa.

The National Judicial Council (NJC) recommended him as Mohammed’s successor-in-office.


Buhari, as the appointing authority, is yet to send his name to the Senate for confirmation.

With Mohammed bowing out tomorrow after attaining the mandatory retirement age of 70 years, 

Buhari reportedly consented on Wednesday to swear Onnoghen in, in acting capacity, to avoid constitutional crisis with the vacuum that Mohammed’s exit would have created.

Details later…

Justice Walter Nkanu Onnoghen
President Muhammadu Buhari has approved the appointment of  Justice Walter Nkanu Onnoghen as the acting CJN 24 hours to the exit of the retiring Chief Justice of Nigeria (CJN), Justice Mahmud Mohammed.

His swearing in, is scheduled for tomorrow (Thursday) at the Aso Rock presidential villa.

The National Judicial Council (NJC) recommended him as Mohammed’s successor-in-office.


Buhari, as the appointing authority, is yet to send his name to the Senate for confirmation.

With Mohammed bowing out tomorrow after attaining the mandatory retirement age of 70 years, 

Buhari reportedly consented on Wednesday to swear Onnoghen in, in acting capacity, to avoid constitutional crisis with the vacuum that Mohammed’s exit would have created.

Details later…

The Battle For 2019, By Reuben Abati

The Battle For 2019, By Reuben Abati

Reuben Abati
One of the most frustrating things about Nigeria’s political history is how it keeps repeating itself and nothing ever seems to change, and the political elite doesn’t seem to learn from history. The present administration has not yet spent up to two years in office and already the language of politics is dominated by the phrase: “the battle for 2019”. Nobody is talking about the next general election of 2019, but “the battle!” As is crystally evident, the 2019 general elections are likely to end up as one big nationwide war, and this won’t be a war of ideas, but a war of egos, of ambitions, and utter desperation for power. Sadly, when Nigerian politicians use the word, “battle”, they are actually talking about power through violent means.

Perhaps what makes this prospect even more believable is the narrative already being peddled that the incumbent President Muhammadu Buhari may decide to be a one-term President, and therefore step down from office in 2019. He would be 77 then, and should he decide to retire from politics, that would leave the field open to a fresh selection of Presidential candidates.



The only matter that seems settled in this regard however is that the successor must come from the Fulani North. You get the sense that this seems given and should President Buhari decide not to run, that may well give the North, the advantage of holding Presidential power for another 4 + 8 years making a total of 12 years depending of course on the performance of whoever succeeds the incumbent. We are still a long way, therefore, from that future when political contests can be determined solely on the basis of the candidate’s merit; the complexity of our ethnic politics has ensured an unwritten rule where power is rotated at all levels among ethnic groups and geographical zones, creating a turn-by-turn sharing of power and office, both in terms of moment and duration. The Ijaws would most certainly someday in the future insist that they deserve another shot at power at the centre.

We may however be dealing with political naivete on the part of those who are basing their 2019 permutations on the likelihood of a one-term Buhari Presidency. There is certainly nothing in the Nigerian Constitution that disqualifies a septuagenarian from being President or seeking a second term. This is why the jostling for Presidency in 2019 by self-appointed crown princes in the All Progressives Congress (APC), and non-APC Northern politicians may ultimately be a case of giving away the game too early in the day.

In 2002, that was how some ambitious elements began a campaign that then President Olusegun Obasanjo should embrace the Mandela option, that is, spend only one term in office. It was their idea, not the incumbent’s. They wanted Baba to retire so they could take over. But the same President Obasanjo not only completed a second term, he was so strong by the end of his second term, some lobbyists even began to campaign for a third term – that failed of course – but since leaving office in 2007, President Obasanjo has remained extraordinarily busy and energetic.

The way it works, a powerful lobby would soon emerge to persuade President Buhari to seek a second term, not just because he is entitled, but because, that is how they usually phrase it: he needs to complete the rescue job that he has started. Already, half of the first term has been overtaken by economic recession, rising uncertainty and an overwhelmed and alienated citizenry. The President would be told that he needs more time to change the tide and leave a stronger legacy. I have seen these open and hidden persuaders at work at very close quarters. They are legacy constructionists who can persuade any political office holder to remain in office forever.

Where age is the issue, they would insist that it is not. Where there are health matters involved, they would invoke the name of God. Where neither age nor health is an issue, they will invent reasons to justify why nobody in power should give it up when he still has a second chance. For example, if at any time in 2014/15, President Goodluck Jonathan had wanted to change his mind about running for a second term, the strong forces driving the second term project would not have allowed him. They were so overpowering even the ethnic card was thrown up when he was reminded that he was not representing himself in Aso Rock but the entire South South and the Ijaw nation and that the zone is entitled like any other geopolitical zone to a second term. Delegations after delegations stormed the Villa and bought media space to make their case. President Buhari would most certainly face the same challenge.

A second theory is that the APC may not survive till 2019 due to the party’s division into many factions, each faction led by an ambitious political figure, looking forward to 2019. There are indications that once the party implodes, that may leave the incumbent President without critical support centres, particularly the South West, whose main political leader, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu seems not to be getting the best deal out of the APC coalition that drove the Jonathan administration out of power. It is again extremely naïve to make political calculations on the basis of an imaginary accident in the opponent’s camp. This is one of the mistakes the PDP made in 2015. Certain influential figures within the party failed to act early and plan effectively because they kept hoping that the APC will fail. But rather than fail, that party which was built on a strong foundation of conspiracy and a single-minded determination to get the PDP government out of power merely got stronger. The PDP, now in disarray is working on that same assumption that got it into trouble. Rather than put its house in order, the party is hoping that the APC will collapse and that will automatically make the PDP the people’s choice in 2019. That is too simplistic an expectation.

Others within the APC who also want to displace President Buhari are further assuming that once he is deserted by key figures that made his victory in 2015 possible, it would be difficult for him to seek a second term or win an election with his own political base, the North, which is now also radically divided over the performance of his government. It is wrong and too early to make such calls. Those who want President Buhari to embrace the Mandela option and are carelessly making their ambitions known should remember what President Obasanjo did to such people in 2003. He outsmarted them and subsequently made them irrelevant. In politics, be careful not to hold the wrong end of the blade.

Those in the PDP and other places who assume that they can emerge in 2019, by sheer accident of circumstances such as economic recession and the growing criticisms of the administration should go back and learn how to build an effective opposition. The opposition in Nigeria today is too docile. It is too silent. The people may have issues with the government of the day, but nobody is offering any challenge or alternative vision in the same kind of robust even if hypertensive manner the APC did throughout the Jonathan administration. Last minute moves in politics are often counter-productive. The swiftest challenger often wins the race.

What is not very clear to many in leadership positions is that there is a difference between politics and governance. They mix both, and mix them up badly, and when they do, they get disappointed in the long run. Besides, politics in Nigeria is still about the sharing of spoils of victory. When the sharing formula fails, or causes disaffection, the political space is muddled up. Nigerian politicians are also selfish: they do not know how to serve a leader. They want to use the leader to serve their own ends, if the leader is weak, they undermine him, if he is strong, they sabotage him. This is why in the end, all the battle cries about 2019 amount to nothing other than cries of selfish desperation. Where are the ideas? Civilized political discourse is driven by ideas, not the exchange of vitriol or abuse over positions and privileges.

Those who are crying like babies over 2019 would serve us better if they engage the general public with ideas. They should tell us why they think change will again be necessary in 2019. They should explain what change or difference they are proposing. I assume that Nigerians are much wiser now: and they are not likely to hand over power to someone who wants it just on the basis of expectations induced by saccharine campaign promises. The “battle of 2019” crowd should also show interest in the present. How do they think economic recession can be dealt with? What ideas do they have about Nigeria’s future and political circumstances? What do they think the government of the day should be doing? What is the value of their own citizenship? What is the value of their stake in the Nigerian project? Who are they? Oftentimes, we don’t really know the people we vote for. We vote for fine posters, what the propagandists tell us, and titillating campaign materials. By the time we get to know the people we voted for, their politics would already be in the way of the governance we wanted, messing it all up.

To move Nigeria forward, we must move beyond the melodrama of politicians, to which there seems to be practically no end, other than own interests. We need a new tribe of leaders: men and women with hot fire in their bellies that can burn all the tents of shameful covenants that have held Nigeria down since independence. As the political warriors begin to talk about “the battle of 2019”, we the people, must insist not on battle or war, but such leadership recruitment that serves the nation, and leads to progress and development, and such politics that produces the best results, new or incumbent. But before 2019, the people must survive and remain assured that indeed the duty of government is to look out for their welfare and make them happy. That is the greater task at hand.

Reuben Abati
One of the most frustrating things about Nigeria’s political history is how it keeps repeating itself and nothing ever seems to change, and the political elite doesn’t seem to learn from history. The present administration has not yet spent up to two years in office and already the language of politics is dominated by the phrase: “the battle for 2019”. Nobody is talking about the next general election of 2019, but “the battle!” As is crystally evident, the 2019 general elections are likely to end up as one big nationwide war, and this won’t be a war of ideas, but a war of egos, of ambitions, and utter desperation for power. Sadly, when Nigerian politicians use the word, “battle”, they are actually talking about power through violent means.

Perhaps what makes this prospect even more believable is the narrative already being peddled that the incumbent President Muhammadu Buhari may decide to be a one-term President, and therefore step down from office in 2019. He would be 77 then, and should he decide to retire from politics, that would leave the field open to a fresh selection of Presidential candidates.



The only matter that seems settled in this regard however is that the successor must come from the Fulani North. You get the sense that this seems given and should President Buhari decide not to run, that may well give the North, the advantage of holding Presidential power for another 4 + 8 years making a total of 12 years depending of course on the performance of whoever succeeds the incumbent. We are still a long way, therefore, from that future when political contests can be determined solely on the basis of the candidate’s merit; the complexity of our ethnic politics has ensured an unwritten rule where power is rotated at all levels among ethnic groups and geographical zones, creating a turn-by-turn sharing of power and office, both in terms of moment and duration. The Ijaws would most certainly someday in the future insist that they deserve another shot at power at the centre.

We may however be dealing with political naivete on the part of those who are basing their 2019 permutations on the likelihood of a one-term Buhari Presidency. There is certainly nothing in the Nigerian Constitution that disqualifies a septuagenarian from being President or seeking a second term. This is why the jostling for Presidency in 2019 by self-appointed crown princes in the All Progressives Congress (APC), and non-APC Northern politicians may ultimately be a case of giving away the game too early in the day.

In 2002, that was how some ambitious elements began a campaign that then President Olusegun Obasanjo should embrace the Mandela option, that is, spend only one term in office. It was their idea, not the incumbent’s. They wanted Baba to retire so they could take over. But the same President Obasanjo not only completed a second term, he was so strong by the end of his second term, some lobbyists even began to campaign for a third term – that failed of course – but since leaving office in 2007, President Obasanjo has remained extraordinarily busy and energetic.

The way it works, a powerful lobby would soon emerge to persuade President Buhari to seek a second term, not just because he is entitled, but because, that is how they usually phrase it: he needs to complete the rescue job that he has started. Already, half of the first term has been overtaken by economic recession, rising uncertainty and an overwhelmed and alienated citizenry. The President would be told that he needs more time to change the tide and leave a stronger legacy. I have seen these open and hidden persuaders at work at very close quarters. They are legacy constructionists who can persuade any political office holder to remain in office forever.

Where age is the issue, they would insist that it is not. Where there are health matters involved, they would invoke the name of God. Where neither age nor health is an issue, they will invent reasons to justify why nobody in power should give it up when he still has a second chance. For example, if at any time in 2014/15, President Goodluck Jonathan had wanted to change his mind about running for a second term, the strong forces driving the second term project would not have allowed him. They were so overpowering even the ethnic card was thrown up when he was reminded that he was not representing himself in Aso Rock but the entire South South and the Ijaw nation and that the zone is entitled like any other geopolitical zone to a second term. Delegations after delegations stormed the Villa and bought media space to make their case. President Buhari would most certainly face the same challenge.

A second theory is that the APC may not survive till 2019 due to the party’s division into many factions, each faction led by an ambitious political figure, looking forward to 2019. There are indications that once the party implodes, that may leave the incumbent President without critical support centres, particularly the South West, whose main political leader, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu seems not to be getting the best deal out of the APC coalition that drove the Jonathan administration out of power. It is again extremely naïve to make political calculations on the basis of an imaginary accident in the opponent’s camp. This is one of the mistakes the PDP made in 2015. Certain influential figures within the party failed to act early and plan effectively because they kept hoping that the APC will fail. But rather than fail, that party which was built on a strong foundation of conspiracy and a single-minded determination to get the PDP government out of power merely got stronger. The PDP, now in disarray is working on that same assumption that got it into trouble. Rather than put its house in order, the party is hoping that the APC will collapse and that will automatically make the PDP the people’s choice in 2019. That is too simplistic an expectation.

Others within the APC who also want to displace President Buhari are further assuming that once he is deserted by key figures that made his victory in 2015 possible, it would be difficult for him to seek a second term or win an election with his own political base, the North, which is now also radically divided over the performance of his government. It is wrong and too early to make such calls. Those who want President Buhari to embrace the Mandela option and are carelessly making their ambitions known should remember what President Obasanjo did to such people in 2003. He outsmarted them and subsequently made them irrelevant. In politics, be careful not to hold the wrong end of the blade.

Those in the PDP and other places who assume that they can emerge in 2019, by sheer accident of circumstances such as economic recession and the growing criticisms of the administration should go back and learn how to build an effective opposition. The opposition in Nigeria today is too docile. It is too silent. The people may have issues with the government of the day, but nobody is offering any challenge or alternative vision in the same kind of robust even if hypertensive manner the APC did throughout the Jonathan administration. Last minute moves in politics are often counter-productive. The swiftest challenger often wins the race.

What is not very clear to many in leadership positions is that there is a difference between politics and governance. They mix both, and mix them up badly, and when they do, they get disappointed in the long run. Besides, politics in Nigeria is still about the sharing of spoils of victory. When the sharing formula fails, or causes disaffection, the political space is muddled up. Nigerian politicians are also selfish: they do not know how to serve a leader. They want to use the leader to serve their own ends, if the leader is weak, they undermine him, if he is strong, they sabotage him. This is why in the end, all the battle cries about 2019 amount to nothing other than cries of selfish desperation. Where are the ideas? Civilized political discourse is driven by ideas, not the exchange of vitriol or abuse over positions and privileges.

Those who are crying like babies over 2019 would serve us better if they engage the general public with ideas. They should tell us why they think change will again be necessary in 2019. They should explain what change or difference they are proposing. I assume that Nigerians are much wiser now: and they are not likely to hand over power to someone who wants it just on the basis of expectations induced by saccharine campaign promises. The “battle of 2019” crowd should also show interest in the present. How do they think economic recession can be dealt with? What ideas do they have about Nigeria’s future and political circumstances? What do they think the government of the day should be doing? What is the value of their own citizenship? What is the value of their stake in the Nigerian project? Who are they? Oftentimes, we don’t really know the people we vote for. We vote for fine posters, what the propagandists tell us, and titillating campaign materials. By the time we get to know the people we voted for, their politics would already be in the way of the governance we wanted, messing it all up.

To move Nigeria forward, we must move beyond the melodrama of politicians, to which there seems to be practically no end, other than own interests. We need a new tribe of leaders: men and women with hot fire in their bellies that can burn all the tents of shameful covenants that have held Nigeria down since independence. As the political warriors begin to talk about “the battle of 2019”, we the people, must insist not on battle or war, but such leadership recruitment that serves the nation, and leads to progress and development, and such politics that produces the best results, new or incumbent. But before 2019, the people must survive and remain assured that indeed the duty of government is to look out for their welfare and make them happy. That is the greater task at hand.

Buhari in Crucial Meeting With APC Governors

Buhari in Crucial Meeting With APC Governors

Buhari in Crucial Meeting With APC Governors
A crucial meeting is ongoing between President Muhammadu Buhari and governors elected under the platform of the ruling All Progressives Congress, APC

The meeting which commenced few minutes after 2;00pm still ongoing at Presidential Villa Abuja.

Details later

How I Increase My Blokos Size & Stopped Premature Ejaculation Issues That Scattered My Relationship For 2years.. Click HERE for Details






Buhari in Crucial Meeting With APC Governors
A crucial meeting is ongoing between President Muhammadu Buhari and governors elected under the platform of the ruling All Progressives Congress, APC

The meeting which commenced few minutes after 2;00pm still ongoing at Presidential Villa Abuja.

Details later

How I Increase My Blokos Size & Stopped Premature Ejaculation Issues That Scattered My Relationship For 2years.. Click HERE for Details







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